You're watching the Wolves - Blazers game. Minnesota just went on a 9-2 run and now lead by 8. Your gut says bet them. But should you? The score went up — but does that mean they're actually playing better, or did they just hit a couple lucky threes? React Live's Game Flow Charts answer that question before the line moves.
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The Problem With Just Watching the Score
Basketball is a game of runs. One team goes on a 12-2 run, the crowd goes crazy, and suddenly the game feels totally different. But here's the thing, not all runs are created equal.
Some runs happen because a team is genuinely dominating by getting into the paint, drawing fouls, creating open looks for their best shooters, and locking up on defense. Those leads tend to hold. Other runs happen because streaky shooters hit a few tough looks they don’t normally make at the same time the opposing team went cold. Those leads? They evaporate.
The scoreboard alone can't tell you which kind of run you just watched. And when you're live betting, you need to know fast. Sportsbooks are already adjusting the line. You have maybe 30 seconds to decide if there's value left.
Game Flow Charts combine to give you a way to look under the hood of what just happened and decide if it's real based on live context.
What Are Game Flow Charts?
Before we deep dive, let us introduce React Live’s Expected Points model.
Think of Expected Points as a way to grade the shot attempts on every possession. It asks: “Based on where that shot came from and a player’s typical shooting percent from that spot, how many points should a team expect to score?” A deep three from Steph Curry grades differently than a three from a center who struggles from behind the arc even if both go in.
How it Could Play Out: If a team is winning by 6 but their Expected Points says they should only be down by 5, they've been shooting way above their normal percentages. Expect them to cool off. Conversely, if a team is down 2 but their Expected Points says they should actually be up by 8 - they may be about to go on a run.
The Expected Points model powers three core charts that work together to show you what's actually going on in a game — not just the score, but the rhythm, pace, and flow of the game.
Think of it like scanning a box score versus watching the game. The box score tells you what happened. Game Flow Charts tell you how and why it happened and what's likely to happen next, so you can take advantage.
Differential Chart — tracks the score differential over the course of the game and compares it to how the spread is moving live. More importantly, it shows you not just how big the lead is, but how it was built - gradually through consistent execution, or in short bursts of hot shooting.
Scoring Chart — tracks each team’s current offensive performance and compares it to expected scoring. You can visualize which teams are over- or under-performing compared to historical shooting numbers, and see how the scoring pace is changing in real time.
Total Chart — visualizes the game scoring pace in terms of points per minute (PPM) and compares that to the expected points per minute (ePPM) over the course of the game. By tracking the difference between the actual and expected scoring pace, you’ll learn how aggressively or conservatively the sportsbook’s Total line is adjusting to what's happening on the floor and whether the current scoring environment is likely to sustain or cool off.
Differential Chart: Is Vegas Keeping Up With the Game?
This chart shows two lines moving over time: the actual score differential between the two teams and the live spread. The big question it answers is how significantly sportsbooks are reacting to scoring changes.
The Differential Chart is the easiest way to catch up on any game action you may have missed and best utilized when making bets on the Spread and Moneyline. You should use it in conjunction with the Scoring Chart.
What to watch for:
What is the flow of the game? Is it a back and forth battle with both teams fighting for the lead? A game of big runs in each direction? Or, is one team slowly and steadily building up their lead as the game goes on?
How strongly is the spread moving relative to the scoring differential? If the underdog takes any early lead but the spread barely moves, Vegas isn't buying it yet. That's a potential opportunity if you believe in the underdog. The reverse can be true if the underdog takes the lead and the spread swings all the way in their favor. If you like the favorite’s chances at a comeback, jump on the live line.
Is the score differential bigger than the Expected Points differential? If so, the leading team may be benefitting from some lucky shooting. A correction is likely coming.
How it Could Play Out: Say the Celtics came in as 7-point favorites but went down 10 early. The lead is there on the scoreboard — but has the spread flipped to favor the other team? Or does Vegas still think Boston is the better team? The Differential Chart shows you exactly where the market is sitting and hovering over the chart reveals the expected point differential.
Scoring Chart: Is the Game Actually Getting Faster?
This chart visualizes each team’s points compared to their expected points, so you can read whether a team's scoring run is happening because they are consistently generating high-percentage shot attempts or just on a lucky, hot shooting streak.
The Scoring Chart is best utilized when making bets on the Spread and Moneyline. You should use it in conjunction with the Differential Chart.
What to watch for:
Is a team’s actual scoring way below their Expected Points? That means their shots aren't falling yet — but the team’s possessions are resulting in good looks. Scoring should pick up soon.
Is the scoring pace actually higher than usual, or did a few quick buckets just make it feel that way? If pace has genuinely spiked and held up, the run has legs
Did the pace spike and then flatline? That's the pattern of a hot stretch, not a sustained momentum shift. The score moved, but the pace of the game didn't really change.
How it Could Play Out: A team trailing by 6 has been generating great looks all half but just can't buy a bucket. Their actual scoring is way below their Expected Points. That gap tells you their offense is fine — the shots just aren't falling yet. That's a live bet opportunity before the scoring catches up.
Total Chart: Where Is the Game's Final Score Headed?
Before the game started, each individual sportsbook set an over/under line for the game total; the predicted combined score for both teams. The Total Chart tracks how that projection is shifting in real time based on what's happening on the floor, and compares it to where the line started.
By monitoring the difference between points per minute (PPM) and expected points per minute (ePPM) over the course of the game, you can make decisions about how accurate a sportsbook’s live total line is.
The Total Chart is best utilized when making bets on the Total Over / Under. You should use it in conjunction with the Scoring Chart.
What to watch for:
The line moves way up after a high scoring first half. Is that because the teams are pushing the pace and generating a lot of high-percentage shot attempts early in the shot clock? Or, was it a hot shooting streak from one or both teams at the start of the game that we can expect to normalize as the game plays out?
If PPM is higher than ePPM, you can expect the scoring rate to slow down. On the flip side, if ePPM is higher than PPM, expect the scoring to pick up in the second half.
How it Could Play Out: The first quarter ends 38-32 and the live total across all the major sportsbooks is way above the pre-game line. But the Total Chart shows ePPM way below the PPM. That fast start was likely due to some lucky shooting from one or both teams. The under might have value before the market adjusts.
Real Game Examples
Example 1: The Market Missed It — Wolves vs. Blazers
Minnesota was building a lead, and the score differential and spread were tracking each other the whole game. But Vegas barely moved the line even as the Wolves kept pulling away. Their spread never strongly responded to any of the Wolves' scoring runs.
Early in the second quarter, the Expected Points model said Minnesota should have been up around 10 points. The actual score gap wasn't that big yet but the model recognized that the Wolves were generating better shot attempts than the Blazers. The spread was still sitting close to the pre-game line.
Key Takeaway: That gap was the opportunity: Minnesota was generating higher-percentage shot attempts, the underlying data supported a bigger lead than the score showed, and the market hadn’t caught up yet. That was the window to live bet the Wolves.
Example 2: Losing the Game but Winning the Bet — Clippers vs. Kings & Pacers vs. Bucks
Here's a concept that may seem confusing at first: a team can be losing on the scoreboard while actually playing better basketball than their opponent. That's what happened in both of these games.
The trailing teams were generating higher-percentage shot attempts. Better looks from better shooters, even though the score didn't show it yet. The Expected Points model had both trailing teams performing like the better team in those stretches.
Neither team came back to win, but if you live bet the spread at this moment in both games on the trailing team, they covered and you would have won your bet.
Key Takeaway: You don’t need to pick the winner. If a team is generating better shot quality than the score shows, they’re likely to close the gap enough to cover the spread — even if they don’t complete the comeback.
Example 3: When Sportsbooks Know Something You Don't — Jazz vs. Hawks
This one is the most interesting and an extremely important lesson in how to use these charts.
Utah built an 11-point lead well into the second quarter. The Scoring Chart showed their points per minute was running well below their Expected Points per minute — meaning the pace should pick up as their shots started falling. On paper, the Jazz looked like a solid live bet.
But here's what the chart also showed: despite Utah being up 11, the spread still had Atlanta with a strong chance to come back. Vegas wasn't moving the line much in Utah's favor at all. Why? Because Atlanta is a significantly better team, and the Jazz had been blowing leads all season. Vegas was pricing in all of that context, not just the current score.
Key Takeaway: The charts spotted the gap between the Jazz’s lead and the market’s response. But before betting the Jazz, you’d want to understand why Vegas wasn’t moving. In this case, the market was right — the Hawks came back. The charts identify the opportunity; the game detail section helps you figure out whether to act on it.
Mistakes to Avoid
These are the most common ways live bettors misread game flow — and how the charts help you avoid them:
Chasing the run without checking the expected points model. A team going 4-for-4 from three in two minutes looks amazing. But if those were all shots taken from players who are typically poor three point shooters, the Expected Points model will flag it as luck. Don't bet into that without taking a closer look.
Ignoring the gap between the score and the spread. If the score moved but the spread didn't, there's a reason. Figure out which one is right before you bet.
Betting the total based on one quarter. A fast first quarter doesn't mean the whole game is going to be high-scoring. Validate the PPM vs ePPM correlation to understand if pace will keep up.
How to Use Game Flow Charts: Step by Step
Here's a simple process to run through when you're live betting and the game just shifted:
Notice a gap.
If you are betting on the Spread. Look for a difference between the score differential and the Spread.
If you are betting on the Total Over / Under, look for a gap between the current Total and Expected Points.
Analyze why there is a gap
For Spread bets, is the Differential Chart showing both teams going on alternating scoring runs? If a team has proven they can respond to runs, they might be able to storm back and take the lead again. Check the Scoring Chart to see if Expected Points are tracking close to Actual Points.
For Total bets, how does the actual total compare to the expected total? Check how close PPM and ePPM are, a sharp increase in scoring pace in the first half may smooth out with slower play in the second half.
See how the market responded. Use the real-time odds screen to see how multiple books have moved their Moneyline odds, Total and Spread lines, and look for any major outliers on odds themselves.
Dig deeper if it doesn't add up. If the charts show an opportunity but sportsbooks aren't moving the way you'd expect (like the Jazz-Hawks game), check the Game Detail section — scoring runs, deviation charts, and quarter-by-quarter data before laying down a bet.